Is It Research? - "Sandip Agarwal" Doesn't Know

Life In Dolldrums ...Markets into arbit roaming

2009-05-27T12:18:00.000-07:00

After losing ground for a long time the bear did gave some chance to the bulls to return to the dias but bulls hibernation for quiet some time had probably increased the inertia within and they came out very strongly after the lady won ....... but unfortunately as Newton rightly said every action has equal and opposite reaction the bulls were taken back may be it was the after effect of inertia....... going back almost couple of months ago probably I witnessed the same thing my long halt of almost 2 1/2 decades probably had resulted in over ejection of the so called foolish airs from within and had also probably resulted into the other party taking me for granted but as rightly said by taleb in fooled by randomness that every thing comes to stability after some volatility it is only the nerve levels which are checked ...... if your stock is fundamentally strong it gives good returns in long run else as the technical beauties sheds away after sometime the stock succumbs to the red.

When Air Touch The Flesh.... Was I Early or Did I Miss The Race

2009-05-21T09:24:00.000-07:00

Now after a nice pleasant experience of the sands when I look back I feel as if like all other investment goons as if I have missed the race .......nevertheless I don't want to polish my thoughts on others and like the so called smart foreign investors I have started just listening to the fundamental and technical strengths of the particular scrip but has not yet either objected or recommended it............. I somehow don't want to be wrong at this early stage of my portfolio although I have decided to keep only one scrip in it until and unless I am proved wrong in doing so.
When I started tracking my scrip I started enjoying the performance initially but then like all other investments the bears started creeping in and I am very scared when at least I being a single scrip investor my worries are expected to be too high at this juncture ……. I have thought of churning my portfolio several times but then the stakeholders didn't allow it in fact I was not sure if I really wanted to churn it out.

It was almost a month and like the old days I was going to get paper transfer of my scrip’s in my demat account and in the meantime probably thinking of selling it off without taking the delivery …… but finally I ended up taking the delivery.
The stock performed so -so for the next few days although was not able to perform vis a vis my expectations ……. but then it is a long term investment and I probably need to keep a bit of patience.

Suddenly the lack of trust factor creeps in and hunts at midnight and often later than that too I don’t know if my stock will meet other stakeholders expectations and this worry is probably unfounded but its worry of the investor or the person who takes risk and I think here I am the risk taker.

Will write more about this scrip in my nest blog…..

Bulls are back Life in a Blink ...................................

2009-05-19T10:59:00.000-07:00

The grey colour of my brain is swirling quiet for sometime now ....don't know how to express but looks like the blink thing is also quiet certain if put through normal and poisson distributions ...last time alone the euphoria was that the bulls have taken chilled beer for quiet sometime and will not be back till the spirit in it evaporates but the "sexy lady" factor worked again even if she is quiet old but still can woo herd of so called teens ( masculines ) probably one such incident happened with me in recent past when I was going through the rough terrains of the desert and suddenly the cactus thorn passed a sense of lightning through the nostrils and didn't have much choice but to my surprise the sand was quiet wet there, I never expected the sand to be wet in this terrain of the countryside but sometimes like the "Fundamental and Technical Analyst " you just discounted the market too much I too discounted the market too much but I am still happy even after being wrong at this juncture the wet feeling of the sand says I got something like the way u make money when you go for sort positions at inflexion points in a bull market or to be precise when you go long position in a mature bear run.

I don't how much the wet land comfort will come in reality but for the time being like all other fundamental and technical experts feeling happy inspite of giving wrong recommendations I at least got something and this selfishness is inborne ....hopefully this selfishness comes out to be true.

Like all other wall street stupids enjoying the early gains but surely expecting it as a fundamental investment and fortunately or unfortunately by habbit once again have betted all my balls on one basket ........but hopeful of positive results from high beta stock ..... hope the lady luck works and my lady gives me the comfort I got couple of months back through out the summers.

Neighbour Deserves A Civil War -- An Economic Booster

2008-12-27T09:02:00.000-08:00

With all due respect and salute to my brothers, sisters and fellow country men ........
I know "tongue burns later but the fossil first" I was talking of a 'hot cup of tea' and the "process” with due respect ....................to my fellow mumbaikars here is what I mean....
Morning, 12 September, 2001
I said I am your friend..... with due respect to your highly credible intelligence agencies I can still take an oath my government and system can never dare to do what has happened .... Sirrrr...
Okay....... Sir they had even holded our breathe for too long now, trust me sir even we want to control them ......but due to some financial constraints we had been pressurised a bit..
What .......
You know they are our people and you committed that “we will kill our brothers"
Then 'what to say' "he categorically mentioned within 6 hours they will remove our integrity from world map" ...........................by killing our brothers we will hardly be able to maintain anyway.General, you know what our people are calling us " King Cobras " ....king cobras are the only snake who eat other snakes .... its a same.... at least why you allowed them to use our air base and our soldiers ..... just to remind you they are our brothers we have deputed them to Taliban just some time back and now you have ordered our army to kill them..............our own brothers.
I am shocked Mr.K**** you are senior most person and you don't understand under what circumstances I said yes.
Ohhhh................ there is two good news for us after long 7 years........
Indian Economical capital had been shaken and our guys left all the proofs which can be ample evidence of our role in the attack.....................
So, we have put all our balls right....... “Have our role been proved" ....Hmmmm it will be in next 2 days ..ample proofs have been left even the least civilized nations can trace our roles .
Good ... So finally she has started putting pressure on us let's keep rejecting our role for some more time and let India build some more international pressure on us.
Sir , Indian media has started discussing "WAR" .... ohhh that’s going in our direction.
Madam ... Good Morning.. Yes we condemn the attacks sincerely but unfortunately we are also victims of the same terror ... we will co-operate.
Sir, India had done some sorties ...let's pull the trigger. Go and announce we can strike immediately ... do some sorties ... create some hysteria..... I will talk about troop pullout with US today.
Yes, Madam that's correct India is posting a war and we need to defend ourselves we need to pull out from North West frontier till the situation cools off.
Mr. K****** start pulling our forces this is the best time to pull out, we should on slightest trigger from India ... You know we will not lose more than some thousand people fighting within India but in this war against terror we will kill all our people and the discontent will lead to a civil war.
Sir, India has categorically denied "War" and now US is questioning our troop withdrawal..... looks like we are failing....... Shall we impose war on them.... That will isolate us we can't be the first movers.

Hmmmm... so the buggers were smart but why should we waste our bullets when they themselves are heading towards a 'civil war'..... (somewhere in N** D****).

Laden To Lehman.............The Evolution of Mamba

2008-09-29T11:13:00.001-07:00

My Problems did rarely hurt me it was my neighbors (SU - not physically) pride which gave me nightmares!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is sometimes in 80's I have completed almost 2 centuries of post independence and had also proved in disguise of the peace process several times my power , …….at least once I did something ( in Jap..) which no one else has dared to ....but that gave us "Super Powers" tag.
I am not happy with my neighbour who has also started building a palace just in front of mine, I am not sure whether there will be any real problems but yes it will take off my glory for some time.
I am thinking of an outside support to one of my neighbors team member as I can see he is little “radical” ( Osa... B.. lade.) and is also capable of at least gathering 10-12 people.
I started giving him all the support to first move away with his people from the palace and also to ensure the palace is never made.
In the process I made & lost some money (selling of arms and funding the war)..........ohhh! It took the shittyfundamentalist (O....B..L....) 12 long years to break away but now I can see my neighbour wagging his tail to me for even food.
Sir “The fundamentalist you supported is conspiring against us”
Oops!!!! I never new this guy will start asking so much. In the disguise of funding and boosting the economy, I have to increase my consumption and spending many a times although "Fed" used to honour my wishes every time but now my people have become lethargic although my currencies value have also shredded within my system, but I have created lot of smart financial institutions who are able enough to cover all this.

Oh my god Oh my god .........the shitty funda….t
"When did the water snake became a Mamba " he has blown my knees (9/11) I have to kill the bast*** .......how many problems do I have to fix at the same time?
But Sir ……
You have just some time back fixed technical error done by Mr. X (God)
ohh .... those oil wells ( "Iraq") I don't know why they were on the wrong side of the border!!!!! & now this "Mamba" ohhhhhh
Yes Sir.....
Anyways I forgot to introduce myself to you I am "Black" if he is "Red" and I think you all know I a more dangerous.
You know what I did last time ?????
Its so simple "" Mr. Fed" cuts down interests--- increase consumption ----- high demand for property and commodities --- values of assets go up ----- more and more money pushed into the system ---- I have all the I- Banks ( who will make sure that 1 Re = 100 Re .... hahahaha ….leverage) ----- hmmm so very high growth ----- everyone's memory will fade away with good times (post 9/11).......
Morning:
Ohh really so 1 of my I- Banks went bankrupt !!!!! Why?????

Mr. Sam because on your orders they lended money to the creditless people ...and you know it has caused a very big problem for us now " Sub-Prime Crisis " ....
ohh don't utter those complicated words you know I only know politics......
Ok Sir but what we do .... the I- Banks have started falling like pack of cards?
Don't worry I am looking for more "Water snakes" ... Can we get one in Iran & another in China......................
It will solve our problem ....you will very soon see the GDP growth numbers moving upside down in the IMF list...we will be on the top ....
Sir you are forgetting there is a "land of Gandhi" ................
hey you don't know our friend Blair’sforefathers did a great job before they came back .... there is a " Rattle snake" (Pak....n) near by which will never allow them to breathe............
Sir , You are great!!!!!!

Tail You Lose Head I Win - Lehman , ML Neutral to IIMS

2008-09-16T08:41:00.000-07:00

Just a day, and couple of hours ago amidst the continuos knocks of the lappy and the irritating sound of tea sips I overheard some small noises coming from the red bricks on one of the greatest Indian Televison Entertainers (some news channel) ... what would be the impact on the "Placements of Indian White Collars "

I will not say I totally disagree with the thoughts of the reporters as I completely agree that they are competing in a rats race and it becomes difficult to maintain quality and quantity everytime .....but if I would have a chance I have gone one more step ahead and thought of the practical impact and my previous philosophies tell me " A beauty can't be ditched " ....... if not I Banks there would be someone else who will buy me in the "Auction".

But the obvious impact would be to the 2nd tier schools for sure as the top recruiters of 2nd tier might shift to the 1st tier now......

The one question which comes to my mind always is "Is US Recession a Bad News for the Emerging Markets and Low Cost Geographies "

I cannot go beyond my "Excel" which always show me green ( as cells are formatted to turn green if the numbers are positive) ... probably it is trying to say " Margin compressions will further trigger the outsourcing process " and this time we might get even the " Manufacturing Processes " or may be sooner or later the " Strategy Getting Outsourced".

If I am right then why others are wrong and If I am wrong then why Hyundai , Jabil Circuit , Cisco Systems , Nokia , Siemens have started increasing their facilities in India ????

I don't think " Obama's personal likes and dislikes makes a significant decision to US corporate and Financial world " Although it does in India ...... Ratan Tata might have to take a cool sip of Rs 15 billion with an Italian Champagne!!!!!!

Fundamental vs Technical ----- Previous didn't work ,latter I din't like

2008-09-09T08:32:00.000-07:00

As usual, this was the time when the bull’s feet had the inertia of early teens, greena was in the air, he was most of the time negotiating with the watch. Surely few things were keeping him away, from insertions ....... and one day finally sometime in late January when he decided to stamp the open threads and walked away from his socks (this were the same which where giving him comfort till now or where pretending to take away, he now realized that the comfort was giving him a higher degree of uncomfort ……they were also keeping the threads open).
The bugger had decided everything at 3.30 P.M and had put to stakes whatever meager he achieved till now on the bulls toe while waiting for the teen on the station, suddenly the so called economists, made some changes, to the so called macro factors and in the run made some aliens the culprits who took all the credentials and no one bothered about the time when the bugger has betted his b....s.
, it surely took him couple of weeks to fill the vacuum left by the losses/culprits but as usual he was sure that he was too late rather than questioning the fundamentals or the teen.
By now he used to see the ups and down on the fundamental movements but were never enough to fill his vacuum but surely always pulled him away from doubting the intrinsic of the teens/ fundamentals.
Somehow as people say that time is the best healer he was more like a deer who waste's most of his time in searching something within and was always cursing himself for the flaw of insertion or the late commitments.
During the same period many technical calls did came some of which were too good and much more strong than the fundamental teens but he being a wall street bugger used to rate them always below the teens , at least 3 of them were really 'mind blo.......'.
People say fundamentals tell you what to buy while technical’s say when to buy but something which bugs me most is
'Whether the fundamentals are really worth getting into? If it was so then why time of insertion was that material?'
“Secondly are technical’s that bad that the bugger didn't give them a chance?
“Wasn't one mistake enough for the bugger to not give chance to the technicals?
if the previous question is right then the saying ' life moves on ' is may be incorrect?
Last question was the fundamental itself technical?
What better can bullish investors who sold his pants to the bear and asked for mercy to the vampires can give you here??????

rying to find the

Back To Square One?

2007-10-22T04:40:00.000-07:00

It's an hour past midnight and the cranking voice of coffee machine "which surpasses all the ears during the daytime" has become quite audible amidst snoring noises (it is night for few of them who had the job of guarding the frontiers but today once again had succumbed to nature's phenomena) from the lobby, it can be assumed with facts that the rust in the chokes of the engineers masterpiece are more adamant than the chokes in nostrils resulting in formers out performance vs. the latter..

The grey cells of the so called "intellectual outsourcing hub" (…….it’s rupee run dude…..) are eagerly waiting for the Almighty’s (…..they have dollars) door to close and to see what is behind the veil after a long pause of 90days.

The poor soldier (Indian Associate) has not left a single stone unturned as usual to prepare himself for the scheduled battle, filled his bag with requisite artillery, some life savers (like fag's & gums) and a piece of white curtain although not visible ...he is all set to write another convincing story of 'what went wrong' it seems as if he has mastered the art by now........." Once again poor results"

The wait is over and the doors have allowed the kings men to come out with the performance card........... "His men are never late and have maintained consistency like the lost battle........." Who else other than the poor chief of finance can dare to announce that?"

The financial sheets are updated and the wire has been tuned for the king’s call (conference call), VPN is no more a bottleneck and on the top of that this time around the bunker is well equipped with both wire line and wireless transmitters.

The company as usual has reported good numbers (ex-one time) but it's quite obvious from history that one time items have found a permanent place in the performance card. In the last couple of years many business segments entered and exited the performance card but always made sure that their movement doesn't impact the positioning of one-time items – “It would be unfair to blame as none has been an exception to this in Almighty’s land”.

The call is over and king's men had kept their positions intact, the ball has changed it’s direction and has once again reached the doors of those who advocated king’s performance (The Analyst/Commander). Soldier and his commander has no other choice other than tightening up their belts and wait for the immense firing from the other side (Investors are waiting like vultures) ......but they know one thing for sure, they haven't simply wasted their time when hairs were undergoing change they also now quite well know how to pacify those who have turned red when respite didn't show a glimpse after a long pause.
It's morning for the soldier but dark inside commander's bunker (he is an inhabitant of the Almighty’s land) which stops him from approaching further .... he wants the poor soldier to carry on the battle on his own for sometime and also to give him a cover fire which will serve dual purpose –“allow him to recover from the bruises & will also excuse him till dusk leaves space for dawn”.

After all the days work It's dawn now (for commander) and both wire line and wireless had found their way ..................the commanders night and soldiers day have gone in all types of reverse engineering’s (one-time items) and cover fires (if not both one of them was always on the battlefield) to somehow once more save the king's men from losing their place but unfortunately the final decision will once again rest on one question " shall we still save him, fight for him and call him the king or debase him ".

Although the commander and soldier had decided last time around to leave kings men for ever if they don't follow the norms (budget) but commanders ethnicity to its community (consensus) doesn't allow him to surpass the decision taken by its colleagues (street) he has once again succumbed to the social bonding of belongingness or to be rather bold "a sheep always moves in a group .....even if it is the whitest" the commander doesn't have anything of his own to bet although he is the best of his type .....by now he has realized that he has just one tough task left “to pass on the message in a sophisticated manner ” that he belongs to a community which doesn’t allow isolation to the wounded soldier.

The soldier feels betrayed by none else other than his commander,he is again curious and bugged down by questions “why he spent an important part of his life (time) to once again save the kings men” although they agreed not to aid king's men again.

By now he has understood that spending some more time will result nothing more than some more coffee finding its way through his throat so a better choice would be to look at the white curtain which is still “unused” – probably he somewhere deep inside his heart knew that he will need it once again before getting into the dark 3-wheeler while reaching to his bunker (office) the previous night.

But he has realized of late that he needs to leave his commander and find someone who is not fret of isolation .... at least you can move on your own when you know the land is your's…. “provided he finds a master in the greener space”.

"The question which bugs me most is ....why did I spent 24 hours on the street when I could have done it in an hour"